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BREXIT, THE GREAT ILLUSION

Great Britain has no intention of leaving the EU, that’s obvious. The Brexit process is strongly reminiscent of the Israeli-Palestinian peace process: it’s meant to last ad vitam aeternam, and during this time, the strings pullers manipulate everyone to make their interests succeed. In 10 or 20 years, the obstacles to Brexit will always be there, sometimes imposed by London, sometimes by Brussels. It remains to be seen why all this joke and what it leads to.

While companies, investors and economists would welcome a “fake Brexit” as a Norwegian style, it would have a huge political cost. Britain would be forced to adhere to EU laws, regulations and legal judgments in which it would have no say. Instead of being a legislator, the United Kingdom would become a “rule-taker” or, in the emotional language recently adopted by the Brexit extremists, Britain would be reduced from imperial power to a “Vassal state” or to an “EU colony”.

A necessary condition for this sequence of events would be the collapse of May’s government, possibly caused by a Brexiteers revolt against the vassal state conditions imposed by the EU during the transition period. Under these circumstances, a general election would almost certainly produce a Labor-led coalition based on the promise to “think again” about Brexit. This was exactly the scenario suggested last month by one of the few remaining Loyalists, Health Minister Jeremy Hunt, who became the first Conservative to publicly admit that “Brexit could never happen”.

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